It is said: Between the view is 20/20. The idea that an icon knows the result of the situation or the answer to a difficult problem is much easier to see that the system has occurred or what could be different. Each of us tends to think that the past events we have foreseen before they actually were. This bias is the reason why all traces, no matter how obvious at the end of Sherlock Holmes.
But 20/20 is average. It’s a baseline. It confirms that you can see at 20 meters, what you should see at 20 meters. But it is much harder to see what comes. Have foresight.
When examining the “professional political judgment”, psychologist Philip Tetlock concluded that the predictions of experts were not much better than the chances. Writing: “At this age, there is no reason to assume that contributors to top magazines – grateful political scientists, specialists in studying, economists, etc. – are better than journalists or attentive readers of The New York Times appear when reading. Rather than specific domain knowledge, wide perspectives, and willing Grande to consider the thoughts of others were a much better indicator of the ability to predict someone’s future results.
When I was preparing for speaking in DLD Munich about how the technology would shape our future, I found that we Lyself revisted some of my favorite sci -fi works. Futures, which they imagine as a court of vonnegut and cory doctorow, which are struggling with existential questions, such as how we define value in society where work is not long needed or what it means to consciously disconnect. Stories that illustrate the possibly pitfalls that society could encourage – but also Shef Light about how we can avoid them with sufficient anticipation and empathy.
Like Tetlock, I believe that having a pulse in the future is essential to accept complexity and draw from different perspectives (such as literature and philosophy). The ancient Greek poet Archilochus wrote: “The fox knows a lot of things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” Because the fox wanders widely, the insight accumulates and quickly adapts to changing circumstances. Although there are moments that require steady focus, challenges that lie ahead of us, they demand curiosity of fox, flexibility and openness to possibilities.
As such, I would like to propose several books that can help you think more like a fox. I hope there is at least one in this list that inspires you as if it had:
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“The Machine Stops” by Em Forster
Written in 1909, Forster’s depiction of a company that prefers virtual experience with the real world, encourages our current dependence on digital connectivity. As our religion increases about technology, its message about the isolation and fragility of these networks seems to be more urgent than ever. -
“Player Piano” by Kurt Vonnegut
Written in 1952 is the Piano player the first novel of the Vonnegut, who is a dark satirical view of the consequences of hyperaumation. As the discussion of AI and mass displacement warms up, Vonnegut’s warning story about what happens when human work and creativity are displaced, they feel disturbing. -
“Walkway” by Cory Doctorow
Doctorow consults future future innovations, 3D printing and team management. His vision suggests both the resistance of self -organized communities and the fragility of systems that seek main control. With interviews on decentralized technology on the rise, Walkaway will become a plan for alternative social structures. -
“Infomacracy” from Malka older
Older consumers of the world carved into the “micro -democracy”, each of which followed the elections based on the data under the alert eye of the global information network. Surprisingly, this assumption is that our current discussion on the integrity of elections, misinformation and the role of large techniques. It invites us to imagine that a more localized policy focused on data could create a system or simply beautiful existing mistakes. -
“A political judgment: How good is he?” How can we know? “Author: Philip Tetlock
Tetlock’s examination of professional predictions reveals how excessive trust and narrow thinking undermine predictive accairs. In an era saturated with courageous predictions from scientists, influences of social media and algorithms, their finding is underlined by the value of open skepticism. They suggest that accepting complexity and uncertainty can be the key to better decisions in the unpredictable future. -
“Niksen: Dutch art does nothing” from Annette Lavrijsen
Lavrijsen guide to the intention of inactivity contrasts sharply with our tireless search for productivity. At a time when the health is related to the rise, the principle of NiSen suggests that “nothing” can be a transformative act of care for themselves. It suggests a future where deliberate rest and mental pauses can become as important as any technological innovation. -
“Hedgehog and fox: essay about Tolstoy’s view of history” by Isaiah Berlin
Berlin’s timeless resolution between the unified “hedgehog” and the multilateral “Fox” offers a framework for interpreting complex world events. As global challenges connect, the ability to balance the umbrella theories with granucular reality is becoming increasingly important. This is trying to predict that those who can do juggle diverse perspectives have the best chance to navigate the uncertain future.
Note: Since sharing my reading list becomes an annual event, I would like to know that books formed the way you see the future. Let me know about x, blues or linkedIn.
Now go build!